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Seattle Seahawks Vs. Atlanta Falcons: Monday Night Football Odds And Picks for Week 11

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Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season wraps up this evening with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks. This is an intriguing showdown between two of the top teams in the NFC in terms of talent, although neither club has been living up to the lofty preseason expectations set for them. The Seahawks are 6-3 at this juncture of the campaign, the Falcons are right behind them at 5-4 and both are sitting outside of first place in their respective divisions. This is why picking up a win tonight is critical for staying in the hunt in what should be a competitive Wild Card race.

If the playoffs were to start today, both Seattle (No. 5 in the NFC) and Atlanta (No. 8) would be in, but there are eight NFC squads in total that have at least four wins and are within striking distance of a postseason berth. Earning a “W” on Monday night would go a long way towards shoring up a return trip to the playoffs for the victor, while the loser will suffer a setback at an inopportune time this late in the year. Due to this, both will be fighting tooth and nail for a crucial primetime win tonight.

The sportsbooks are giving a slight edge to the Seahawks at home, opening them as a three-point favorite before shifting the line down to SEA -1, where it currently stands. It’s as close a spread as you can get outside a pick ‘em, making this one of the hardest games of the season to untangle. It’s best to consult with an expert before making a pick and Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com is one of the best in the industry at predicting winners. He has a can’t-miss take on tonight’s contest, but before getting to the Las Vegas pro’s pick, here’s a quick peek at the start time, TV info, updated odds and more for Week 11’s Monday Night Football game between the Seahawks and Falcons.

Monday Night Football Week 11 Viewing Guide

Odds updated at 6 p.m. ET

Time (ET) Matchup (TV) Odds Total
Monday, Nov. 20
8:30 p.m. Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (ESPN) SEA -1 46

MNF Odds via BetDSI.eu Sportsbook

 

Atlanta and Seattle may be located on opposite ends of the country and play in different divisions, but these clubs have met a decent amount in recent years. Because of the relative success of each organization, they have been scheduled for four regular season matchups in the last six seasons, plus squared off in a pair of postseason battles. Here’s a look at how each game since 2010 played out (home team in bold):

Date Result
01/14/2017 * ATL 36 – SEA 20
10/16/2016 SEA 26 – ATL 24
11/10/2013 SEA 33 – ATL 10
01/13/2013 * ATL 30 – SEA 28
10/02/2011 ATL 30 – SEA 28
12/19/2010 ATL 34 – SEA 18

*=NFC Divisional Round Playoff Game

As you can see by the results and may remember, there have been some truly great games between these teams. The upstart Seahawks suffered a heartbreaking loss in Atlanta back during the 2012 Divisional Round, mounting a furious comeback from down 27-7. They eventually lost on a Matt Bryant field goal with time nearly expired, but would use that as motivation to come back stronger in 2013, beating the Falcons in a Georgia Dome rematch as one of their 13 regular season wins on the way to their first ever Super Bowl victory.

It’ll be interesting to watch if Seattle can again find a way to avenge a postseason loss to Atlanta. The Seahawks' most reason trip to the playoffs ended after they were throttled by the Falcons, 36-20, in the Divisional Round. It’s certainly not going to be an easier to win this time around, especially with injuries plaguing the once-stout defense that has served as the backbone and soul of the franchise during the modern era.

Kam Chancellor, the big-hitting strong safety, is the latest Legion of Boom member to head off for the rest of the 2017 campaign. Chancellor suffered a neck injury against the Arizona Cardinals last week and will now join cornerback Richard Sherman (torn Achilles) on injured reserve. Earl Thomas is the last remaining healthy member of a recognizable secondary that has been instrumental to Seattle’s pair of Super Bowl runs and other playoff appearances.

Bill Barnwell tweeted out the number of games that the Legion members have missed since 2012:

Tonight’s contest will be the first since 2011 that just one of the Sherman, Chancellor and Thomas trio will be healthy and active for. ESPN pointed out just how incredible that secondary grouping has been when on the field at the same time since 2011:

ESPN

Thomas said his squad may be navigating uncharted waters, but isn’t going to roll over, as per USA Today:

We haven't been in this territory before, but we're excited to see. We trust the guys that we're going to put out there. These guys battle, they prepare, they prepare as if they're going to be starters. And it's the NFL; everyone is always one play away. It behooves you to be prepared.

The Seahawks are dealing with their injury issues, but the Falcons are far from being the healthiest team in the league. Starting running back Devonta Freeman has been ruled out tonight as he continues to deal with a concussion he suffered early in Week 10. Tevin Coleman will take over as the RB1 in Atlanta after rushing for 83 yards and a touchdown during last week’s win over the Dallas Cowboys.

The team also has Terron Ward, Derrick Coleman and Terrence Magee as backup options, but plans to mostly lean on Tevin Coleman to get the job done against the tough Seahawks rushing defense, as per D. Orlando Ledbetter:

Seattle ranks within the top-10 for both total yards and rushing yards allowed in 2017, and even without Chancellor laying big hits, this will still be a tough group to attack on the ground. After a rocky start to the new campaign, the Seahawks have done a great job keeping opposing running backs in check. Here’s the top RB performance against them in each of the past six games:

Opponent Top Back Stats
Arizona Cardinals Adrian Peterson 21 car, 29 yds, 0 TD
Washington Redskins Rob Kelley 14 car, 18 yds, 2 TD
Houston Texans Lamar Miller 21 car, 54 yds, 1 TD
New York Giants Orleans Darkwa 9 car, 35 yds, 0 TD
Los Angeles Rams Todd Gurley 14 car, 43 yds, 0 TD
Indianapolis Colts Frank Gore 12 car, 46 yds, 0 TD

Considering top backs are averaging a mere 15 carries for 38 yards and half a touchdown over the past month and a half, it’s not wise to expect a great game from Coleman. That means the way to beat Seattle is, somewhat surprisingly, through the air. Fortunately for Atlanta, the club is equipped to do so with reigning MVP Matt Ryan under center and steadily improving in recent weeks.

Ryan is well off pace of last year’s numbers and isn’t remotely in the MVP discussion this year with just 13 touchdowns against eight interceptions through nine games, but he has been getting better. The 32-year-old has guided his side to victory in two of the last three games and has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of those three contests, including an impressive second half last week in which he connected on 11 passes in a row, generated both of his touchdowns and 121 of his 215 total yards in the game. Ryan will need to build on that performance to lead his team to a win in primetime against a beatable and banged up Seahawks secondary.

Despite the Legion of Boom injuries, Ryan knows he won’t have it too easy tonight, as per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Shaquill Griffin has done a good job. We haven’t played against him prior to this. He’s talented and aggressive. (Jeremy) Lane is a guy who we played against before. I anticipate both safeties (Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor) being back. We’ll see. It doesn’t really matter. Both of the guys are really talented in their scheme

The Falcons were wise to prepare for Chancellor, but Bradley McDougald will likely man the starting safety spot across from Earl Thomas tonight and going forward. McDougald, now in his fifth year out of Kansas, is a former starter with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and has seen plenty of action for Seattle this season. Head coach Pete Carroll said he’s fortunate to have a player like McDougald on the bench for situations like this, as per Mike Dugar:

With all these injuries, new starters and other variables to account for, it’s not going to be easy to pick a winner against the spread. Fortunately, Jon Price is here to help with his thoughts on the matter…

Price’s Take: “The Seahawks are hosting the Falcons in an exciting Monday Night Football contest, but this game definitely lost a bit of luster from the preseason hype. Seattle is banged up and show its age on defense, while Atlanta’s offense has been a shell of its former self without offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who is now coaching the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams should still make the playoffs at the end of this campaign—and this may even be a potential matchup, which would be the third meeting in five seasons—but neither is looking like a Super Bowl contender at this juncture. 

This is the time of year, however, that clubs start to get hot and make runs. The Seahawks and Falcons each possess enough raw talent, veteran leadership and hardened playoff experience to turn it on in the back end of the season and make a deep run in the winter. That’s why tonight’s game is so important, as it could very well jumpstart that run in front of a national television audience. With a spread that is as narrow as they can be, it’s expected to be and should be a tightly contested battle.

Neither squad has fared well against the spread in 2017, with Atlanta just 3-6 ATS and Seattle not much better at 3-5-1. The Seahawks have been surprisingly bad at home, going 1-3 ATS as a home favorite so far this year. The Falcons have been a road underdog just once before, but failed to cover in that contest. If you have to pick a team to cover tonight, go with the Seahawks, as they are 3-1 straight-up at home this year and covering a one-point spread isn’t asking for much more than winning—with a push as a worst-case scenario.

The best bet on the evening isn’t against the spread but rather on the total. Both franchises have been hot offensively, with Seattle QB Russell Wilson putting his team on his back with 11 touchdowns in the last four games. The Falcons also dropped 27 on Dallas last week and now get Julio Jones going up against a decimated Legion of Boom secondary, making for a tasty plus-matchup that the All-Pro wideout should feast on. With an over/under set at 46, go with the over as the night’s top play and watch as both sides score in spades."

Pick: Seahawks -1, Over 46

Prediction: Seahawks 30 – Falcons 28